Decompose plan-to-actual variance into structural drivers with attributable owners and quantified impact.
Plan (YTD)
$887.3M
Actual (YTD)
$881.8M
Variance
($5.52M)
-0.6% vs plan
Explained
1142%
10 drivers identified
Bridge — Plan → Actual
Ranked by absolute impact
Consumer volume
($32.4M)
Consumer price / promo
($14.8M)
International FX
($22.1M)
Digital mix
+$8.10M
Freight — APAC
+$6.40M
Services attach
+$4.60M
Technology run-rate
($12.8M)
Marketing timing
+$3.80M
Payroll — merit cycle
($6.20M)
Other, net
+$2.40M
By division · EBITDA variance
Consumer Products
($10.4M)
Digital Commerce
+$4.86M
Business Services
+$3.09M
International
($3.98M)
Supply Chain & Logistics
+$900K
Root-cause narrative
Auto-generated · Gemini 2.5
critical
Consumer Products drives 62% of the EBITDA miss
-$47.2M
Volume softness (-$32.4M) compounded by higher promo intensity (-$14.8M) as competitors ran through their spring inventory. Price realization is +$8M favorable but insufficient to offset.
risk
International FX headwind persists
-$22.1M
EUR/USD weakened ~3.4% vs plan. Unhedged 62% of EUR exposure through Q3. Treasury has proposed a rolling collar.
offset
Digital + Services momentum offsets $19M
+$19.1M
Digital subscription attach up 240 bps and Managed Services renewals at 96% are the strongest positive contributors.